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Polling has favoured Trump’s opponents ever since he got involved in politics.
We all remember the infamous predictions that Trump would give Hillary a landslide victory right up until the votes were actually cast.
And of course the complete opposite happened.
And in 2020, again Trump entered the election leagues behind according to every single poll out there, but the results ended up being dangerously (pun intended) close.
You’d be forgiven then for thinking that 2024 would be exactly the same.
That Trump would be predicted to lose by every measure, only to see wildly different results on the day.
But in a twist, the polling is actually showing Trump far stronger than most people expected.
Bloomberg is now running continuous polling between the two Presidents, every single month, and April’s results just came in.
To say they aren’t good for Biden would be a gross understatement.
Across the 7 swing states which almost always determine the President (Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) Trump is leading by 6 points.
And of those 7 states, only Michigan has Biden winning, with a slim margin of just +2.
What’s driving Biden’s poor performance?
Economic issues seem to be dominating the consciousness of the American public, with the vast majority of US citizens expected the inflation rate, the stock market, borrowing costs, employment rates and the economy as a whole getting worse over the rest of 2024.
Despite this, new data suggests those 7 swing states are actually experiencing lesser impacts of high inflation and weak economics, so for this to impact the polls to the extent they have is seriously bad news for Biden.
Of course we can’t ignore the elephant in the room, which is Biden’s poor performance, and widespread belief that he is not cognitively capable of being President.
Most importantly though, is what Biden will do to try and change these polls prior to the election.
The weak economy is dominating American minds, and Biden is extremely likely to try to disguise these issues as best he can in the run up to the election to give him a better chance at winning.
Betting on the money printer being turned back on at this point in time may not be a bad idea, as it may well be Biden’s only chance at seeing a second term as President.
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Stay Stoic,
Max
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